Monday 18 May 2015

Testing Times

Its been a tough old week really with nothing providing profits, there has been a lot of promise from various ideas I have been testing but everything that I am actually betting on is struggling at the moment.

The Longshot - The wait goes on and are now 26 days without a winner the stakes are starting to get larger which has to be expected when recovering the loses the week as a whole made a loss of £180.60 which is a big loss really however with a win all that will be recovered. The real fear comes from if there was no winner next week or the week after the stakes may become to high to handle this upto now has never been the case but of course is always a possibility the back up plan there would be to then just recover my stakes and forfeit the profit which would be painful to of gone all that time not to make a profit but would be a lot better than busting my bank or making a huge loss.

Football - Finally dropped a winning bet last week but had to wait until the 14th bet to land a winner which is just too long when backing the draw and trying to recover stakes here it was definitely a case of lesson learnt stakes need to be smaller and I have to be more selective when betting although I did land a winner a loss of £8.78 was made due to stakes been too large

Lay Bets had two winning bets this week so it was always an uphill challenge the good news was the rest of the bets for the week lost so just a small loss of £1.54

Golf Bets had another losing week as Rory Mcilroy went on to win comfortably as a general rule Rory is just not a worth while bet in my opinion the odds on him winning most tournaments are just way to low very similar to Tiger Woods when he was at his best and although Rory does win plenty of tournaments at the odds available there's only one winner and that wouldn't be me

Football Draw Strategy
The basic idea here is one bet per day picking what I feel likely to be a draw again I apply a recover loss staking so ideally can't afford too many losses on the bounce as I recently found out. I think my biggest mistake was the stakes was too high and I found ways to make the strategy safer but choose to ignore it.

How I pick my Football bets - is fairly simple by going to http://www.oddschecker.com/



You will generally find a couple of the most popular bet on football games for that day, depending on the time of day you look at http://www.oddschecker.com/ these games can change just as an example I have took a few screen shots of three games played today as below






As you can see from the above examples the most likely draw based on the odds would be the Chelsea v West Brom however this alone isn't enough to make me choose that bet I then look at all teams previous results and when the last time they drew. Then make my decision which bet to place I have found from testing and my live bets this formula on average throws up a winner every 6 games however I recently had my worst run which was 14 games.

The Safer strategy I had discovered was if I continued to pick my bets each day but wait until 4-5 losing bets occur then start placing my bets I would miss only a few winning bets and minimise my exposure to losing runs the key here would be being able to pick the same bets weather I am betting or not but I feel if I could keep the same strike rate as before this is the way to go

Look out for the next update on Monday 25/5/15
  • Update on results
  • Future Plans
This Week Total -£197.22

Monday 11 May 2015

Drawing A Blank

So this weeks results was pretty poor with only the lay bets getting any returns at all my golf bets finally had a losing week which has been long overdue so no complaints there the wait goes on for a winner from my longshot bets and the football bets didn't do any better either...

The Longshot bets had a total of six bets this week with Tuesdays bet turning into a non runner total stake for week was £81 with no returns the losing run is now 19 days so still well within what to expect and hopefully a winner isn't too far away

My Football bets are also on a losing run at the moment the stakes for the week was £41 again no returns here I have just gone past my worst losing run and am now on day 11 with no winners last time this happened I just recovered my losses but this time I'm still trying to also get my profit as well however I feel there will need to be a change in strategy here as the stakes are building up way to quickly on a losing run so a bit of a rethink required.

Golf betting this week through up a blank as previously mentioned but after such a winning run it had to be expected this week had a total of £8 staked with no returns

Lay Bets provided the only returns this week with six bets in total one bet went on to win so a lose of £3.96 was made but as a whole on the week a profit of £5.54 so pretty happy with that odds this week ranged from 1.73-9.4

Lay Bet Strategy

I'm sure many of you have tried backing tipsters nap bet of the day and so often found it is the quickest way to make a loss well my strategy is quite simple using Racing Post website I simple go to the tipping section  look at what as been most napped as below:

 
Then simply lay that bet I haven't been doing this very long so obviously very early days I havn't laid anything over 9/1 and think I will keep it this way but anything else I simply lay for £2 there is just one bet per day Monday - Sunday so far I have had a total of 17 bets with just two winners both winners was under 2/1 so no real damage done and a profit so far of £27.36
 
 
It literally takes two minutes to do and so far has been a profitable strategy but obviously 17 days is not a big enough sample to know if a long term profit will be made so I am keeping the stakes at £2 and seeing how the results go on over the next few month
 
Look out for the next update on Monday 18/5/15
  • Update on results
  • More details on how I pick my Football Bets
This Week Total -£124.46


Monday 4 May 2015

Rory McIlroy 9/1

This week turned out to be very similar to last week the highlight of the week coming from the golf also had another good week from laying on the horse racing but other than that pretty much fired blanks

Rory Mcllroy 9/1 went on to win the WGC-Cadillac Match Play to now make it six winning weeks in a row this is by far my longest every winning run whilst betting on golf and whilst the odds may be shorter than some of my older strategy's at least for now I am throwing up regular winners

 
The Lay bets this week landed fiver winners out of six to make a £6.78 profit there my bet on Tuesday was a non runner so just six bets this week and although one of the lay bets lost no real damage done and another profit on the week was made

I am still waiting for a winning on my racing system that largely is based around longshots I am now on day 13 with no winners so on this particular cycle I have staked £60 with no return but baring in mind I am recovering losses I am pretty happy with that the longest losing run to date has been 24 so all been well a winner shouldn't be too far away

Football betting I had my longest losing run of 9 bets and whilst trying to win £1.30 per day plus recover losses was just too high to maintain a winner finally come in Friday but what I did was just recover my losses so no profit gained but no loss either.. now I decided £1.30 was just way too much at this point so I have decided to drop it to 50p then after 5 losses up it to £1 this way when I recover my loses it shouldn't build up quite so fast

Typically I got another football win on Saturday so got back to back winners but over 11days only made 50p but more importantly didn't make a loss and protected my bank

So this week though up a loss of £20.19 but considering I am still waiting for a winner on the racing and basically broke even on the football I am very pleased with that result... The most important thing for me is protecting my bank and keep moving forward

Horse Racing Longshot

This week wanted to explain a little further how I choose my Longshot bet of the day so far after 167 days it stands at £413.70 profit averaging £2.47 per day I started off targeting to win £1 per day and have gradually built up after a win I currently am targeting £5.60 per day I have been quite aggressive in building up and would say the system certainly works its just a case of making sure I don't try and go too big too soon.

Each day I run though all the races and pick any qualifying horses after this I then run through several filters some days there will be no horses left once I run through all the filters in which case I select the horse that is the closest to coming through all my filters, Typically there are anything from 1-4 potential bets after going through all my filters and at which point I select just one bet per day.

One key thing is any bet must be above 9/1 once in a while though there is a bet that will be a stand alone horse that is the only qualifier and comes under 9/1 in which case I place the bet but only to recover any losses on previous bets I know really I should not place the bet at all and choose the next best qualifier but the system to date has worked over 167 days so this is what I am sticking to.

I am sure many people would want to know my filters and more details on how I select my bets but I really can't give too much away as I have landed quite a few winners ranging from 6/1 - 26/1 and want to protect what I feel is a winning strategy which am sure you will understand

Look out for the next update on Monday 11/5/15
  • Update on results
  • More details on how I pick my Horse Racing Lay Bets 
This Week Total -£20.19