Testing Times

Its been a tough old week really with nothing providing profits, there has been a lot of promise from various ideas I have been testing but everything that I am actually betting on is struggling at the moment.

The Longshot - The wait goes on and are now 26 days without a winner the stakes are starting to get larger which has to be expected when recovering the loses the week as a whole made a loss of £180.60 which is a big loss really however with a win all that will be recovered. The real fear comes from if there was no winner next week or the week after the stakes may become to high to handle this upto now has never been the case but of course is always a possibility the back up plan there would be to then just recover my stakes and forfeit the profit which would be painful to of gone all that time not to make a profit but would be a lot better than busting my bank or making a huge loss.

Football - Finally dropped a winning bet last week but had to wait until the 14th bet to land a winner which is just too long when backing the draw and trying to recover stakes here it was definitely a case of lesson learnt stakes need to be smaller and I have to be more selective when betting although I did land a winner a loss of £8.78 was made due to stakes been too large

Lay Bets had two winning bets this week so it was always an uphill challenge the good news was the rest of the bets for the week lost so just a small loss of £1.54

Golf Bets had another losing week as Rory Mcilroy went on to win comfortably as a general rule Rory is just not a worth while bet in my opinion the odds on him winning most tournaments are just way to low very similar to Tiger Woods when he was at his best and although Rory does win plenty of tournaments at the odds available there's only one winner and that wouldn't be me

Football Draw Strategy
The basic idea here is one bet per day picking what I feel likely to be a draw again I apply a recover loss staking so ideally can't afford too many losses on the bounce as I recently found out. I think my biggest mistake was the stakes was too high and I found ways to make the strategy safer but choose to ignore it.

How I pick my Football bets - is fairly simple by going to http://www.oddschecker.com/

You will generally find a couple of the most popular bet on football games for that day, depending on the time of day you look at http://www.oddschecker.com/ these games can change just as an example I have took a few screen shots of three games played today as below

As you can see from the above examples the most likely draw based on the odds would be the Chelsea v West Brom however this alone isn't enough to make me choose that bet I then look at all teams previous results and when the last time they drew. Then make my decision which bet to place I have found from testing and my live bets this formula on average throws up a winner every 6 games however I recently had my worst run which was 14 games.

The Safer strategy I had discovered was if I continued to pick my bets each day but wait until 4-5 losing bets occur then start placing my bets I would miss only a few winning bets and minimise my exposure to losing runs the key here would be being able to pick the same bets weather I am betting or not but I feel if I could keep the same strike rate as before this is the way to go

Look out for the next update on Monday 25/5/15

• Update on results
• Future Plans

This Week Total -£197.22

Drawing A Blank

So this weeks results was pretty poor with only the lay bets getting any returns at all my golf bets finally had a losing week which has been long overdue so no complaints there the wait goes on for a winner from my longshot bets and the football bets didn't do any better either...

The Longshot bets had a total of six bets this week with Tuesdays bet turning into a non runner total stake for week was £81 with no returns the losing run is now 19 days so still well within what to expect and hopefully a winner isn't too far away

My Football bets are also on a losing run at the moment the stakes for the week was £41 again no returns here I have just gone past my worst losing run and am now on day 11 with no winners last time this happened I just recovered my losses but this time I'm still trying to also get my profit as well however I feel there will need to be a change in strategy here as the stakes are building up way to quickly on a losing run so a bit of a rethink required.

Golf betting this week through up a blank as previously mentioned but after such a winning run it had to be expected this week had a total of £8 staked with no returns

Lay Bets provided the only returns this week with six bets in total one bet went on to win so a lose of £3.96 was made but as a whole on the week a profit of £5.54 so pretty happy with that odds this week ranged from 1.73-9.4

Lay Bet Strategy

I'm sure many of you have tried backing tipsters nap bet of the day and so often found it is the quickest way to make a loss well my strategy is quite simple using Racing Post website I simple go to the tipping section  look at what as been most napped as below:

 

Then simply lay that bet I haven't been doing this very long so obviously very early days I havn't laid anything over 9/1 and think I will keep it this way but anything else I simply lay for £2 there is just one bet per day Monday - Sunday so far I have had a total of 17 bets with just two winners both winners was under 2/1 so no real damage done and a profit so far of £27.36

 

 

It literally takes two minutes to do and so far has been a profitable strategy but obviously 17 days is not a big enough sample to know if a long term profit will be made so I am keeping the stakes at £2 and seeing how the results go on over the next few month

 

Look out for the next update on Monday 18/5/15

• Update on results
• More details on how I pick my Football Bets

This Week Total -£124.46



Rory McIlroy 9/1

This week turned out to be very similar to last week the highlight of the week coming from the golf also had another good week from laying on the horse racing but other than that pretty much fired blanks

Rory Mcllroy 9/1 went on to win the WGC-Cadillac Match Play to now make it six winning weeks in a row this is by far my longest every winning run whilst betting on golf and whilst the odds may be shorter than some of my older strategy's at least for now I am throwing up regular winners

 

The Lay bets this week landed fiver winners out of six to make a £6.78 profit there my bet on Tuesday was a non runner so just six bets this week and although one of the lay bets lost no real damage done and another profit on the week was made

I am still waiting for a winning on my racing system that largely is based around longshots I am now on day 13 with no winners so on this particular cycle I have staked £60 with no return but baring in mind I am recovering losses I am pretty happy with that the longest losing run to date has been 24 so all been well a winner shouldn't be too far away

Football betting I had my longest losing run of 9 bets and whilst trying to win £1.30 per day plus recover losses was just too high to maintain a winner finally come in Friday but what I did was just recover my losses so no profit gained but no loss either.. now I decided £1.30 was just way too much at this point so I have decided to drop it to 50p then after 5 losses up it to £1 this way when I recover my loses it shouldn't build up quite so fast

Typically I got another football win on Saturday so got back to back winners but over 11days only made 50p but more importantly didn't make a loss and protected my bank

So this week though up a loss of £20.19 but considering I am still waiting for a winner on the racing and basically broke even on the football I am very pleased with that result... The most important thing for me is protecting my bank and keep moving forward

Horse Racing Longshot

This week wanted to explain a little further how I choose my Longshot bet of the day so far after 167 days it stands at £413.70 profit averaging £2.47 per day I started off targeting to win £1 per day and have gradually built up after a win I currently am targeting £5.60 per day I have been quite aggressive in building up and would say the system certainly works its just a case of making sure I don't try and go too big too soon.

Each day I run though all the races and pick any qualifying horses after this I then run through several filters some days there will be no horses left once I run through all the filters in which case I select the horse that is the closest to coming through all my filters, Typically there are anything from 1-4 potential bets after going through all my filters and at which point I select just one bet per day.

One key thing is any bet must be above 9/1 once in a while though there is a bet that will be a stand alone horse that is the only qualifier and comes under 9/1 in which case I place the bet but only to recover any losses on previous bets I know really I should not place the bet at all and choose the next best qualifier but the system to date has worked over 167 days so this is what I am sticking to.

I am sure many people would want to know my filters and more details on how I select my bets but I really can't give too much away as I have landed quite a few winners ranging from 6/1 - 26/1 and want to protect what I feel is a winning strategy which am sure you will understand

Look out for the next update on Monday 11/5/15

• Update on results
• More details on how I pick my Horse Racing Lay Bets 

This Week Total -£20.19

Justin Rose 10/1

Well the highlight of the week come from yet another winning golf bet this time Justin Rose 10/1 went on to win I had a outright bet which made a £10 profit

I also had a each way bet which landed a £6.25 profit

So another good week from the golf taking the profits now up to £96.50

Unfortunately this is where the good news ends this week as the Horse Racing is yet to land a winner since last Sunday nothing to be concerned about really I have had losing runs up to 24 days before so no need for concern total outlay since the last winner is now £16.80 

The football is also in a similar position with no winner since last Sunday however this is the longest I have gone without a winner on the football so I am in new territory here still no real concern and am currently with a out lay of £24.10

Since last week I have one additional bet per day which comes in form of a Lay bet on the racing since Wednesday 22nd I have had one lay bet per day for £2 and so far I have won each lay bet the odds have ranged from 1.84 - 11 very early days yet and still very much in trial mode there will be no recovery style staking system here just a straight 1 point lay per bet

Golf Betting System
I would just like to go into slightly more detail about how I come up with the bets I am placing firstly starting with Golf Bets over the years I have always been able to find winners from betting on PGA Golf tournaments from numerous ways however the specific rules I use to pick my current golf bets unusually throw around 5-8 qualifiers per tournament I then have to do additional research to get this number down to 3 bets per tournament

I started with just win bets but have also started doing each way bets to date there have only been 10 tournaments I have used this betting system on but I have found 6 winners which I can assure you is an exceptional strike one that I cannot see me maintaining

For the place bets I have only had four tournaments (these bets are the same just backed separately and each way) here I have had 4 out of 4 winners and one place

In addition to this I also am using a recover staking plan so in other words if I lose next weeks bets I will have lost £3 on my outright bets so instead of placing £1 per bet I would bet slightly more on each selection to recover the £3 loss and would continue to do this until I land a winner... If you have any questions please feel free to post a comment and I will get back to you as soon as possible

Look out for the next update on Monday 4/5/15

• Update on results
• More details on how I pick my Horse Racing Bets

This Week Total -£11.10

Long Time

Seems to of been a long time since updating the blog Its been extremely difficult to find time to find a winning betting strategy as well as keeping the blog updated with what has and hasn't worked but at long last have got round to an update and happy to report a profit over the 154 days

Firstly the Horse Racing has proven the biggest contributor with 17 winners over the 154 days it may not sound a lot but with just one bet per day its been more than enough to secure a £474.30 profit I should also mention the staking system used Initially I targeted just £2 per day however I also decided to recover all losses so in theory I can't lose (unless my bank busts!!)

I have slowly increased my target per day and am currently at £5.60 per day obviously there are risks involved using this style of staking but after 154 days I feel I have sufficient bank to cover the longest losses to date the biggest individual bet has been £16 with the largest drawdown been £120 my hope is to be at £10 per day by the end of the year.

My next contributor is Football betting here I use a football tipster but instead of backing there pick I have found it quite profitable to back the draw and lay the favourite after 61 days I am showing a £107.25 profit again I use a bet recovery staking system and started out at £1 a day backing the draw again there Is just one bet per day also after the favourite has won 5 times in a row I then lay them for additional profits which to date has resulted in £19.66 profit

Finally Golf betting I am using my own system here I have only actually bet on 9 tournaments so far but landed five winners with:
Jordan Spieth 14/1 winning the Valspar Championship
Jimmy Walker 20/1 winning the Valero Texas Open
J.B Holmes 25/1 Winning the Shell Open
Jordan Spieth 10/1 Winning the Masters
Jim Furyk 22/1 winning the RBC Heritage

So far has resulted in a £76.30 profit obviously a fantastic strike rate and return but can't get too carried away yet as I need a much larger sample of bets before upping my stakes

Latest Winners

Racing

Football

 

 

 

Golf

There isn't much to ever report on a day by day basis as there is only ever a few bets per day and one golf tournament I bet on per week so my plan is to update every week or two also to go into more detail about the bets  as for now just wanted to get a update on the blog... Look out for the next update

steady start to the weekend trading

I think that this must have been the easiest day trading that I have ever had with only two trades for the day and both of them were profitable. I’ve been looking around at different strategies for trading on tennis because at the minuet I have just been going blindly into it without any real direction and I think that is what is holding me back. So hopefully I will find one to give a go it soon

The first trade that I did today was on the match between Diego Schwartzman and simone bolelli I started off the trade by backing bolelli at 3.15 after watching all of the 1^st set to be honest there wasn’t much between them so I went in to it blind and my tack tic was to just hope and pray that they odds went into my favour and they did just that in the 4^th game of the 3^rd set when the odds dropped to 1.88 netting myself £5.40

The second trade that I did today was on the Guido Pella v Juan Carlos saez match there wasn’t much between these two, both of them on two games each but that didn’t show in the odds Pella was the clear favourite so I decided to lay him at 1.06 in the fifth game of the 1^st set and it paid off because the odds went up after he ended up losing the first set so that lead me to back him making £10.70 if I had waited a few more games the odds went all the way up to 3.85 so I would have made a lot more profit off this trade. But I just didn’t have the guts to take it any further.

a few close calls.

Another good day for me I am proud to say with a grand profit of £15.55, well not all that grand but at this moment in time I am just as happy simply making a regular profit. the first two trades that I did weren’t easy, close games and not much movement tested my nerve to the max.

The first trade that I did was the match between monfils and Federer. I watched the game for a while and decided to lay monfils 6 games into the 3^rd set at 1.05 that’s when I thought Federer isn’t going to come back and this could be a loss so when he won the 8^th game of the 3^rd set and the odds went in my favour I got out of the trade, backing monfils at 1.07 making me a measly profit of £0.40 I’ll take that rather than a loss.

The second trade that I did was on the match between basic and kravchuk this was a hard game to trade on because it was just so close all the way through and there want much movement but I had a go never the less. I started off by laying basic at 2.52 on the 11^th game of the 3^rd set hoping that he would lose a few games on the trot, but that didn’t happen I had to wait right till the last game and still there wasn’t any movement so I decided to get out while I could by backing basic at 2.25, just managing too break even on that one

 

The last trade that I did today was the most lucrative for me making me a massive £14.95. it was on the match between pella and baena. I started the trade in the 3^rd game of the first set by laying pella at 3.75 it was risky move really hoping that the odds would go higher that this and they did all the way up to 14 in the 3^rd game of the second set that’s when I couldn’t hold out any longer so I backed him closing the trade, it was a good job that I got out when I did because pella came back and went on to win, sealing my profit of £15.55 for the day.