Monday, 18 May 2015

Testing Times

Its been a tough old week really with nothing providing profits, there has been a lot of promise from various ideas I have been testing but everything that I am actually betting on is struggling at the moment.

The Longshot - The wait goes on and are now 26 days without a winner the stakes are starting to get larger which has to be expected when recovering the loses the week as a whole made a loss of £180.60 which is a big loss really however with a win all that will be recovered. The real fear comes from if there was no winner next week or the week after the stakes may become to high to handle this upto now has never been the case but of course is always a possibility the back up plan there would be to then just recover my stakes and forfeit the profit which would be painful to of gone all that time not to make a profit but would be a lot better than busting my bank or making a huge loss.

Football - Finally dropped a winning bet last week but had to wait until the 14th bet to land a winner which is just too long when backing the draw and trying to recover stakes here it was definitely a case of lesson learnt stakes need to be smaller and I have to be more selective when betting although I did land a winner a loss of £8.78 was made due to stakes been too large

Lay Bets had two winning bets this week so it was always an uphill challenge the good news was the rest of the bets for the week lost so just a small loss of £1.54

Golf Bets had another losing week as Rory Mcilroy went on to win comfortably as a general rule Rory is just not a worth while bet in my opinion the odds on him winning most tournaments are just way to low very similar to Tiger Woods when he was at his best and although Rory does win plenty of tournaments at the odds available there's only one winner and that wouldn't be me

Football Draw Strategy
The basic idea here is one bet per day picking what I feel likely to be a draw again I apply a recover loss staking so ideally can't afford too many losses on the bounce as I recently found out. I think my biggest mistake was the stakes was too high and I found ways to make the strategy safer but choose to ignore it.

How I pick my Football bets - is fairly simple by going to http://www.oddschecker.com/



You will generally find a couple of the most popular bet on football games for that day, depending on the time of day you look at http://www.oddschecker.com/ these games can change just as an example I have took a few screen shots of three games played today as below






As you can see from the above examples the most likely draw based on the odds would be the Chelsea v West Brom however this alone isn't enough to make me choose that bet I then look at all teams previous results and when the last time they drew. Then make my decision which bet to place I have found from testing and my live bets this formula on average throws up a winner every 6 games however I recently had my worst run which was 14 games.

The Safer strategy I had discovered was if I continued to pick my bets each day but wait until 4-5 losing bets occur then start placing my bets I would miss only a few winning bets and minimise my exposure to losing runs the key here would be being able to pick the same bets weather I am betting or not but I feel if I could keep the same strike rate as before this is the way to go

Look out for the next update on Monday 25/5/15
  • Update on results
  • Future Plans
This Week Total -£197.22